ボルトン、エバースタット 「世界は(当たり前だが)北朝鮮の崩壊を恐れてはならない」 |
先日、ワシントンの保守系シンクタンクAEIに籍を置く、ジョン・ボルトン、ニコラス・エバースタットが連名で、「世界は北朝鮮の崩壊を恐れてはならない」と題するコラムを書いた(原文下記。 The Wall Street Journal, OCTOBER 2, 2008)。
エバースタットについては、今年5月に会った際、彼から聞いた興味深い話を下記エントリで紹介した。
ある世界食糧計画(WFP)職員の奇妙な発想
http://island.iza.ne.jp/blog/entry/569318/
今回のコラムの題名(編集部が付けたものだろうが)、「北朝鮮の崩壊を恐れてはならない」は、本来当たり前のことで、仮にも自由民主主義国に住む人間が、北の崩壊を恐れるとすれば、「奇妙な発想」という他ない。妙な利権絡みかと疑われても仕方ないだろう。
結論部分で二人はこう書いている。まことに当然の健全な発想だと思う。
金正日の死は北朝鮮の死を早めうる。それは歓迎すべき成りゆきだ。再統一された、十分に民主的な韓国(コリア)は、アメリカの強い同盟国となろう。これはわが国務省が、常にと言ってよいほど、無視したがる地政学的利益である。
(原文)Kim Jong Il's demise could thus hasten North Korea's demise as well, an outcome we should welcome. A reunited, fully democratic
The Wall Street Journal
OCTOBER 2, 2008
The World Shouldn't Fear
The Collapse of
By JOHN R. BOLTON and NICHOLAS EBERSTADT
As panicky
In both
Nightmare predictions of loose nukes, an out-of-control North Korean military, a tsunami of refugees and the prospect that the South might have to absorb over 20 million impoverished new citizens are keeping some awake at night. Unquestionably, a
But let's keep our eyes on the prize. There may be a precious opportunity in the midst of potential disaster to reunite the
A regime crisis in
First, there is no doubt that North Korea's nuclear arsenal must not be allowed to fall into the wrong hands, outside or inside the country, nor should the North's chemical and biological weapons be made operational. The U.S.-South Korean Combined Forces Command (CFC) has contingency plans for these circumstances, drawn with the full realization that rapid implementation in a period of high uncertainty may mean the difference between securing the North's weapons of mass destruction and seeing them used in chaotic and deadly ways.
Despite contrary speculation, there is no motivation for
Critical here is that
Not only would a decisive CFC operation minimize the chances for loose nukes or warlord-minded generals, it could also dramatically help reassure the North Korean population that they could stay in their homes, and prevent massive refugee flows into China. That, in turn, could eliminate any thoughts
Second, whatever the CFC is able to do, there is little doubt we must plan for urgent humanitarian needs in the North. The scale and expense of the response required to forestall tragedy in these circumstances could be staggering -- but today such an international response is not only feasible, but potentially quite manageable. Key to this assessment is the critical geographical fact that
For any successful response to humanitarian travails in
Like
The economic implications of absorbing the North Korean population have seemed terrifying to South Korean policy makers ever since the Berlin Wall came down. But the plain fact is that the economic chasm between North and South will continue to widen as long as the North Korean regime survives. The longer unification is postponed, the greater the immediate challenges of reunification are likely to be.
There are potential economic opportunities in an economic reintegration of North and South -- not just expenses. A flexible and market-oriented Korean economy, under rule of law and open to international trade and finance, will be best placed to capitalize upon these opportunities. In the short run, the expenses of dealing with humanitarian needs from the North may be high. But in the long run, if a reunified
Kim Jong Il's demise could thus hasten
Mr. Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of "Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations" (Simon & Schuster, 2007).Mr. Eberstadt, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, is author of "The North Korean Economy Between Crisis and Catastrophe," (Transaction Publishers, 2007).